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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."